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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.